Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
Live
- $6.4K
- $14.8K
- 33
- $8.5K
- $11.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 4100+100.0%
- 4200+100.0%
- 4300+100.0%
- 4500+98.2%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
7 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
4300+
$1.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 100.0¢No 0.0¢ - > 99 %
4200+
$160.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 100.0¢No 0.0¢ - > 99 %
4100+
Yes 100.0¢No 0.0¢ - 98.2 %
4500+
$2.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 98.2¢No 1.8¢ - 92.0 %
4700+
$830.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢ - 72.5 %
4800+
$672.64 traded, 24 h
Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢ - 51.5 %
4900+
$787.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · Science
- Series
- measles · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 7 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 71
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,073 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 11 have settled; 3700+, 3800+, 3900+, 4000+ settled Yes.
The result is checked against cdc.gov. Open the source
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 15:58 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.