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Politics · US electionsSenate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result

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$7.1K
$105.0K
58
$14.6K
$145.1K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Chuck Schumer85.5%
  • Chris Van Hollen11.1%
  • Brian Schatz2.0%
  • Tom Cotton1.8%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

11 open · 1 settled · 52 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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52 more that never traded
1 settled

Event facts

Category
Politics · US elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
11 open · 1 settled · 52 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
177
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
11,469 shares
  1. Created
  3. First trade
  5. Event start

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This event has 64 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

1 of the 64 have already settled No.

It has been eligible for resolution since Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 5, 2026 04:26 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.