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Pop Culture · MoviesAwards

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

Live

$4.9K
$22.0K
42
$9.5K
$43.7K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Christopher Nolan66.5%
  • Denis Villeneuve18.0%
  • Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi9.0%
  • Peter Farrelly3.4%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

21 open · 20 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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20 more that never traded

Event facts

Category
Pop Culture · Movies
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
21 open · 20 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
119
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
7,399 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. Where an option lists more than one director, if one of the listed directors wins individually, or both listed options win jointly, that option will resolve to "Yes". If only one of the jointly listed directors is a joint winner with another individual (e.g., tied with a director from another option), only the winning listed director's last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If both jointly listed directors win alongside one or more directors not listed in that option, all winning listed directors last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This event has 41 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 15, 2026 23:22 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.