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World · Economy & the FedRBNZReserve Bank of New Zealand Decision

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision in March?

Live

$9.3K
$10.9K
48
$5.7K
$12.8K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 25 bps increase42.5%
  • No Change40.5%
  • 25 bps decrease16.5%
  • 50+ bps increase2.8%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
World · Economy & the Fed
Series
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision · annual
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
5 open
Fills, last 24 h
327
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
16,879 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 17, 2027, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

The result is checked against rbnz.govt.nz. Open the source

It can settle from Mar 17, 2027 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 2, 2026 02:37 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.