September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Live
- $5.4K
- $9.1K
- 12
- $8.5K
- $19.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 1.35–1.39ºC90.5%
- <1.30ºC0.1%
- >1.49ºC0.1%
- 1.30–1.34ºC0.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
6 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 6 open questions add up to 90.8¢.
- 90.5 %
1.35–1.39ºC
$493.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢ - < 1 %
<1.30ºC
$1.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
>1.49ºC
$879.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
1.45–1.49ºC
$781.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
1.30–1.34ºC
$731.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
1.40–1.44ºC
$723.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Weather · Climate
- Series
- Temperature Increase · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $250
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 6 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 31
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 5,456 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This event has 6 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against data.giss.nasa.gov. Open the source
It can settle from Nov 2, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 16:11 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.