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Politics · Economy & the FedFed

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

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22
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$15.3K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 3 questions with the highest chance now.

  • December 3119.0%
  • November 307.5%
  • October 311.7%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

3 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Economy & the Fed
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Fee
No trading fee
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
3 open
Fills, last 24 h
45
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
13,875 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Kevin Warsh either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging Kevin Warsh in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Kevin Warsh will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 3 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 29, 2026 04:27 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.