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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Live

$7.3K
$1.45M
7
$266.0K
$244.3K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 191.5%
  • 28.0%
  • 30.3%
  • 40.1%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

6 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 6 open questions add up to 100.0¢.

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Event facts

Category
Pop Culture
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter v3
Questions
6 open
Fills, last 24 h
10
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
9,328 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 6 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Mar 2, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 2, 2026 08:29 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.