Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result
- $6.6K
- $160.7K
- 61
- $53.7K
- $154.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Centre Party (C)78.5%
- Green Party (MP)54.0%
- Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)53.8%
- Christian Democrats (KD)47.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
9 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 78.5 %
Centre Party (C)
$953.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢ - 54.0 %
Green Party (MP)
$539.42 traded, 24 h
Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢ - 53.8 %
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 53.8¢No 46.2¢ - 47.0 %
Christian Democrats (KD)
$300.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢ - 44.0 %
Moderate Party (M)
$549.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢ - 43.5 %
Liberals (L)
$417.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢ - 21.0 %
Left Party (V)
$699.19 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢ - 4.1 %
Sweden Democrats (SD)
$1.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 4.1¢No 95.9¢ - 1.1 %
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Global elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 9 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 165
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 14,155 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
This event has 9 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It has been eligible for resolution since Sep 14, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 7, 2026 07:37 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.