Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result
- $10.4K
- $97.6K
- 61
- $51.5K
- $114.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Iowa99.5%
- Florida (Special)99.2%
- Alaska96.0%
- Mississippi95.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
20 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
Iowa
$781.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢ - > 99 %
Florida (Special)
$584.33 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.2¢No 0.8¢ - 96.0 %
Alaska
$1.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢ - 95.8 %
Mississippi
$336.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 95.8¢No 4.2¢ - 87.3 %
Louisiana
$245.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 87.3¢No 12.7¢ - 83.5 %
South Carolina
$652.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢ - 68.0 %
Ohio (Special)
$395.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢ - 61.0 %
Kansas
$1.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢ - 54.3 %
Montana
Yes 54.3¢No 45.7¢ - 41.5 %
Maine
$217.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢
- 24.5 %
Nebraska
$787.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 19.5 %
Michigan
$10.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 8.5 %
Minnesota
$122.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢ - 2.6 %
Georgia
$237.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.6¢No 97.4¢ - 2.1 %
Colorado
$298.80 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.1 %
New Hampshire
$477.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
North Carolina
$271.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Texas
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
Virginia
$111.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
New Mexico
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 20 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 298
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 19,451 shares
- Event start
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 20 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It has been eligible for resolution since Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 4, 2026 15:55 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.