Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 14, 2026?

Open, no trades in the last 24 h

Yes

4.5 % chance

95.5 % chance

$0.00

Trading opened Oct 28, 2026 21:52 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 15, 2026 04:59 UTC

Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...? → all 32 questions

Who holds this, and their record

as of 02:15 UTC

17 wallets hold a position here. 12 of them have a positive Tech record.

Fewer than 5 wallets hold $10 or more, so every holder is listed.

On Yes

7 wallets

Staked: $7
Avg paid: 3.4¢
Now: 4.5¢

On No

5 wallets

Staked: $81
Avg paid: 98.2¢
Now: 95.5¢

Wallets

Dollars

Yes

xt…me$5 @ 3.0¢+$3
Tech +5.2¢ · 972 settled · 14 dLifetime +$351.2K · 129,548 settled
TE…ET$0 @ 0.1¢$0
Tech +3.2¢ · 11 settled · 14 dLifetime +$3.4K · 278,858 settled
Nu…94$1 @ 4.1¢$0
Tech +2.8¢ · 641 settled · 14 dLifetime −$34.2K · 18,761 settled

a…z$29 @ 95.0¢$0
Tech +5.6¢ · 32 settled · 14 dLifetime +$75.0K · 17,592 settled
mi…27$30 @ 99.9¢−$1
Tech +3.0¢ · 173 settled · 14 dLifetime +$19.7K · 21,554 settled
sm…pt$8 @ 99.9¢$0
Tech +2.6¢ · 233 settled · 14 dLifetime +$3.6K · 24,258 settled

All 12, by name:

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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured

Where is the price now, and how did it get there?

4.5 %chance
Yes 4.5¢ · No 95.5¢

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