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Tech · AI

Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?

Live

$7.4K
$16.8K
52
$2.7K
$35.2K

Where holders with a record are, by question

as of 01:20 UTC

6 wallets with a positive Tech record hold $50 or more on this event.

The 6 by name, each with its record, with a free account.

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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured

Where holders with a record are, by question

as of 01:20 UTC

6 wallets with a positive Tech record hold $50 or more on this event.

The holders
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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • No release by November 3039.0%
  • November 2424.9%
  • November 1724.1%
  • November 1820.2%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
Varies by question
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
19 open · 13 settled
Fills, last 24 h
76
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
10,841 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

13 of the 32 have already settled No.

It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 14, 2026 01:20 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.