Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
Live
- $7.4K
- $16.8K
- 52
- $2.7K
- $35.2K
Where holders with a record are, by question
as of 01:20 UTC6 wallets with a positive Tech record hold $50 or more on this event.
- No release by November 3039.0¢Yes 3 · $251 · paid 30.0¢No 2 · $125 · paid 67.9¢
- November 130.1¢Yes noneNo none
- November 1913.2¢Yes noneNo none
- November 2424.9¢Yes noneNo none
- November 208.3¢Yes noneNo 1 · $198 · paid 79.9¢
- November 1724.1¢Yes noneNo none
Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No release by November 3039.0%
- November 2424.9%
- November 1724.1%
- November 1820.2%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
19 open · 13 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 19 open questions add up to 165.5¢.
- 39.0 %
No release by November 30
$7.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢ - 24.9 %
November 24
$16.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.9¢No 75.1¢ - 24.1 %
November 17
Yes 24.1¢No 75.9¢ - 20.2 %
November 18
Yes 20.2¢No 79.8¢ - 13.8 %
November 14
Yes 13.8¢No 86.2¢ - 13.2 %
November 19
$39.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.2¢No 86.8¢ - 8.3 %
November 20
$0.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.3¢No 91.7¢ - 4.7 %
November 27
Yes 4.7¢No 95.3¢ - 4.3 %
November 16
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 3.2 %
November 26
Yes 3.2¢No 96.8¢
- 2.5 %
November 23
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 1.7 %
November 21
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢ - 1.6 %
November 15
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.1 %
November 30
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
November 22
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
November 25
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
November 28
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
November 29
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
November 13
$94.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
13 settled
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 19 open · 13 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 76
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,841 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
13 of the 32 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 14, 2026 01:20 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.