Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 13, 2026?

Live

Yes

0.1 % chance

99.9 % chance

$94.86

Trading opened Oct 28, 2026 21:52 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 14, 2026 04:59 UTC

Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...? → all 32 questions

Who holds this, and their record

as of 02:15 UTC

22 wallets hold a position here. 18 of them have a positive Tech record.

Fewer than 5 wallets hold $10 or more, so every holder is listed.

On Yes

11 wallets

Staked: $8
Avg paid: 4.7¢
Now: 0.1¢

On No

7 wallets

Staked: $100
Avg paid: 99.1¢
Now: 100.0¢

Wallets

Dollars

Yes

Lo…ts$1 @ 6.0¢−$1
Tech +6.1¢ · 530 settled · 14 dLifetime +$19.3K · 95,259 settled
xt…me$6 @ 4.7¢−$6
Tech +5.2¢ · 972 settled · 14 dLifetime +$351.2K · 129,548 settled
a…3$0 @ 0.2¢$0
Tech +3.3¢ · 962 settled · 14 dLifetime −$10.8K · 292,635 settled

a…z$29 @ 98.1¢+$1
Tech +5.6¢ · 32 settled · 14 dLifetime +$75.0K · 17,592 settled
go…94$30 @ 99.9¢$0
Tech +3.3¢ · 237 settled · 14 dLifetime +$4.4K · 13,504 settled
mi…27$8 @ 99.9¢$0
Tech +3.0¢ · 173 settled · 14 dLifetime +$19.7K · 21,554 settled

All 18, by name:

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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured

Where is the price now, and how did it get there?

0.1 %chance
Yes 0.1¢ · No 99.9¢

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