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Data essays and tutorials from the team building the statistical truth layer for prediction markets — 3.3M wallets, 84 skill metrics, every number traceable on-chain. RSS
Profit ranks bankrolls and win rate ranks price preferences. To rank Polymarket traders by skill, score calibration, edge over the price paid and risk, then check the sample size.
A wallet's profit and win rate cannot tell skill from luck. Compare how often its side won with the prices it paid, over enough resolved positions. Here is the check, step by step.
How to tell which Polymarket wallets bought World Cup contenders early on real edge versus piling into a bandwagon — using alpha-vs-mid and entry timing, not just who won.
The LBS/Yale coin-flip study says most prediction-market winners are lucky, not skilled. Here is how to tell the difference on Polymarket — calibration, alpha-vs-mid, and sample size.
A 98% win rate made +$5.1k. A 19% win rate made +$339.8k. How Polymarket win rates get manufactured — and which metrics actually measure trader skill.
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