Blog
Data essays and tutorials from the team building the statistical truth layer for prediction markets — 2.9M wallets, 84 skill metrics, every number traceable on-chain. RSS
The LBS/Yale coin-flip study says most prediction-market winners are lucky, not skilled. Here is how to tell the difference on Polymarket — calibration, alpha-vs-mid, and sample size.
A 98% win rate made +$5.1k. A 19% win rate made +$339.8k. How Polymarket win rates get manufactured — and which metrics actually measure trader skill.
Newsletter
The weekly Smart-Money Report
Who moved, where the skilled money diverges from the crowd, and the calibration leader of the week. One email, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.