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Data essays and tutorials from the team building the statistical truth layer for prediction markets — 3.3M wallets, 84 skill metrics, every number traceable on-chain. RSS
Yes. A Polymarket backtest needs past trades, a fill model and a fair baseline. This is what a backtest must get right, what it cannot know, and how to run one from a plain-language question.
Copying a profitable Polymarket trader does not hand you their result. The price you can still get, the fills the order book allows and how the wallets were chosen decide it. Here is how to test it first.
A Polymarket backtest is easy to run and easy to get wrong. This guide covers the data, the entry price, fills, the fair baseline, luck, the sealed final test and paper trading, with a worked example.
Paper trading runs a Polymarket strategy on live data and scores every signal against the real order book, without placing orders, holding funds or needing a key. Here is how it works and how to read it.
How to tell which Polymarket wallets bought World Cup contenders early on real edge versus piling into a bandwagon — using alpha-vs-mid and entry timing, not just who won.
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