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Politics · Middle East

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Live

$24.5K
$7.39M
28
$1.11M
$555.5K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.

  • December 3115.5%
  • October 315.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Resolution terms
Varies by question
Questions
2 open · 10 settled
Fills, last 24 h
68
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
35,392 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

This event has 12 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

10 of the 12 have already settled No.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 04:08 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.