How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Live
- $18.5K
- $857.1K
- 7
- $64.6K
- $4.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 14–1653.5%
- 17–1933.5%
- 20+4.0%
- 11–134.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 3 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 4 open questions add up to 95.0¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Weather · Earthquakes
- Series
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes · annual
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 4 open · 3 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 9
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 35,033 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This event has 7 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
3 of the 7 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 8, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026 04:34 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.