Iran leadership change by...?
Live
- $13.4K
- $13.81M
- 47
- $1.08M
- $408.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- June 30, 202722.5%
- December 3111.5%
- November 306.5%
- October 312.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 10 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 4 open · 10 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 93
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 75,899 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 14 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
10 of the 14 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 04:08 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.