Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Live
- $5.3K
- $3.33M
- 17
- $54.8K
- $98.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 31, 202733.5%
- June 30, 202720.5%
- March 31, 202713.5%
- December 313.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 6 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 4 open · 6 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 22
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,100 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This event has 10 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
6 of the 10 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 02:26 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.