Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result
- $5.3K
- $21.2K
- 51
- $5.6K
- $20.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 175-17947.5%
- 170-17445.3%
- 180-1841.5%
- Below 1700.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 2 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 4 open questions add up to 94.9¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Series
- Republican House seats · annual
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 4 open · 2 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 139
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,413 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 6 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
2 of the 6 have already settled No.
It has been eligible for resolution since Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026 04:27 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.