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Politics · Ukraine & RussiaGeopolitics

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

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$7.6K
$42.9K
17
$30.9K
$47.8K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • March 31, 202763.0%
  • December 3133.5%
  • November 305.5%
  • October 310.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

4 open · 1 settled

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Ukraine & Russia
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Resolution terms
Varies by question
Questions
4 open · 1 settled
Fills, last 24 h
21
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
8,820 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

This event has 5 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

1 of the 5 have already settled No.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 01:39 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.