Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Live
- $6.9K
- $2.10M
- 43
- $346.1K
- $82.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- June 30, 202758.0%
- December 3112.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US politics
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 2 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 69
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 18,786 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
This event has 6 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 6 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jul 1, 2027 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 17, 2026 02:23 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.