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Politics · Economy & the FedFedFOMC

Fed Decision in January?

Live

$72.1K
$1.16M
111
$456.8K
$969.4K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 25 bps increase55.5%
  • No change43.5%
  • 25 bps decrease0.5%
  • 50+ bps decrease0.4%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Politics · Economy & the Fed
Series
FOMC · monthly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
5 open
Fills, last 24 h
281
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
288,143 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 28, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 12, 2026 13:53 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.