Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Live
- $11.7K
- $1.28M
- 50
- $889.5K
- $235.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 31, 202736.0%
- June 30, 202725.0%
- March 31, 202711.5%
- December 31, 20263.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
6 open · 1 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 36.0 %
December 31, 2027
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢ - 25.0 %
June 30, 2027
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢ - 11.5 %
March 31, 2027
$2.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢ - 3.7 %
December 31, 2026
$6.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 3.7¢No 96.3¢ - 2.3 %
November 30, 2026
$7.11 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.3¢No 97.7¢ - < 1 %
October 31, 2026
$118.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
1 settled
Event facts
- Category
- Politics
- Series
- Merz Out
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 6 open · 1 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 98
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 19,220 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This event has 7 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
1 of the 7 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 31, 2026 08:38 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.