How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
Live
- $6.2K
- $10.0K
- 78
- $5.6K
- $4.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 239.5%
- 130.6%
- 327.2%
- more than 517.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
7 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 7 open questions add up to 133.7¢.
- 39.5 %
2
$755.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢ - 30.6 %
1
$3.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 30.6¢No 69.4¢ - 27.2 %
3
$93.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 27.2¢No 72.8¢ - 17.1 %
more than 5
$207.59 traded, 24 h
Yes 17.1¢No 82.9¢ - 16.6 %
4
$82.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.6¢No 83.4¢ - 2.0 %
0
$1.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢ - < 1 %
5
$359.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢
Event facts
- Category
- Weather · Earthquakes
- Series
- 6.5 Earthquake Weekly · weekly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $250
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 7 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 243
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 12,242 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This event has 7 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against earthquake.usgs.gov. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 12, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 22:04 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.