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Politics · Middle EastOilHormuz shipping targeted

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

Live

$5.8K
$13.3K
37
$2.4K
$24.9K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • October 295.2%
  • October 495.0%
  • October 1194.7%
  • October 594.1%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Series
Hormuz shipping targeted · monthly
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
15 open · 9 settled · 7 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
146
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
9,564 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

This event has 31 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

9 of the 31 have settled; October 12, October 6, October 1, October 3, October 7, October 9, October 10, October 13 settled Yes.

It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 15, 2026 01:29 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.