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Politics · Middle EastOilHormuz Transits (neg)

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result

$17.5K
$51.9K
15
$26.6K
$113.1K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 0-599.1%
  • 5-101.5%
  • 10-150.9%
  • 30+0.4%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Series
Hormuz Transits (neg) · monthly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
7 open
Fills, last 24 h
31
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
17,589 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

This event has 7 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It has been eligible for resolution since Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 8, 2026 02:06 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.