Ballon d'Or 2026: 4th Place
Live
- $5.6K
- $21.1K
- 57
- $13.1K
- $71.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Rodri58.0%
- Lionel Messi13.5%
- Kylian Mbappé9.8%
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia4.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
30 open · 21 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 58.0 %
Rodri
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢ - 13.5 %
Lionel Messi
$338.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 9.8 %
Kylian Mbappé
$552.85 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.8¢No 90.2¢ - 4.5 %
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
$603.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 4.3 %
Michael Olise
$331.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢ - 4.1 %
Ousmane Dembélé
$660.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.1¢No 95.9¢ - 3.7 %
Lamine Yamal
$525.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.7¢No 96.3¢ - 2.1 %
Erling Haaland
$379.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.6 %
Fabian Ruiz
$379.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.5 %
Dayot Upamecano
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢
- 1.5 %
Declan Rice
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.5 %
Vitinha
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.5 %
Willian Pacho
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.4 %
Ferran Torres
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - < 1 %
Jude Bellingham
$0.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
Julián Quiñones
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
Marquinhos
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
Lautaro Martinez
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Harry Kane
$378.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Achraf Hakimi
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Bruno Fernandes
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Gabriel Magalhães
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
João Neves
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Luis Diaz
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Marc Cucurella
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Nuno Mendes
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Pau Cubarsi
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sadio Mané
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Vinícius Júnior
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
William Saliba
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
21 more that never traded
- No quote now
Other
- No quote now
Player A
- No quote now
Player B
- No quote now
Player C
- No quote now
Player D
- No quote now
Player E
- No quote now
Player F
- No quote now
Player G
- No quote now
Player H
- No quote now
Player I
- No quote now
Player J
- No quote now
Player K
- No quote now
Player L
- No quote now
Player M
- No quote now
Player N
- No quote now
Player O
- No quote now
Player P
- No quote now
Player Q
- No quote now
Player R
- No quote now
Player S
- No quote now
Player T
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Awards
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 15% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 30 open · 21 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 175
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,190 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 4th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 4th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 51 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 02:25 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.