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Politics · Middle EastOilships transit the Strait of Hormuz

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?

Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result

$12.2K
$29.1K
60
$30.6K
$79.1K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • <2095.0%
  • 35-395.4%
  • 30-342.2%
  • 25-291.8%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Series
ships transit the Strait of Hormuz · weekly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
6 open
Fills, last 24 h
223
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
26,167 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

This event has 6 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It has been eligible for resolution since Oct 4, 2026 23:59 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 15:40 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.