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Crypto · BitcoinBitcoin Difficulty Adjustment

Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 975,744?

Live

$7.7K
$8.0K
29
$644.66
$9.8K

Where holders with a record are, by question

as of 04:59 UTC

7 wallets with a positive Crypto record hold $10 or more on this event.

Fewer than 5 wallets hold $50 or more, so the list starts at $10.

  • Up 0-3%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo none
  • Down >7%99.9¢
    Yes noneNo 2 · $34 · paid 17.8¢
  • Down 0-3%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo 1 · $29 · paid 97.0¢
  • Up 3-7%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo none
  • Up >7%50.0¢
    Yes noneNo 3 · $67 · paid 98.3¢
  • Down 3-7%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo 3 · $56 · paid 87.8¢

The 7 by name, each with its record, with a free account.

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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Crypto record beat the price paid by 1.98¢ a share (others +1.06¢; 7.17M positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,572 markets). How we measured

Where holders with a record are, by question

as of 04:59 UTC

7 wallets with a positive Crypto record hold $10 or more on this event.

Fewer than 5 wallets hold $50 or more, so the list starts at $10.

  • Up 0-3%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo none
  • Down >7%99.9¢
    Yes noneNo 2 · $34 · paid 17.8¢
  • Down 0-3%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo 1 · $29 · paid 97.0¢
  • Up 3-7%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo none
  • Up >7%50.0¢
    Yes noneNo 3 · $67 · paid 98.3¢
  • Down 3-7%0.1¢
    Yes noneNo 3 · $56 · paid 87.8¢
The holders
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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Crypto record beat the price paid by 1.98¢ a share (others +1.06¢; 7.17M positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,572 markets). How we measured

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Down >7%99.9%
  • Up >7%50.0%
  • Down 0-3%0.1%
  • Down 3-7%0.1%
Loading the event chart…

Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Crypto · Bitcoin
Series
Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment · weekly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
7% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 20% maker rebate
UMA bond
$250
Dispute window
10 minutes
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
6 open
Fills, last 24 h
52
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
480 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment that occurs at the specified block height. Block 975,744 is the next difficulty retarget height and is currently expected to be reached on or around November 13, 2026 (ET). If the displayed percentage falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The difficulty adjustment is the percentage change in Bitcoin network difficulty that takes effect at the specified block height, as displayed in the "Change" column of the Adjustments table on the mempool.space Mining Dashboard. A positive percentage is an "up" adjustment and a negative percentage is a "down" adjustment. If mempool.space does not display the adjustment for the specified block height within 2 calendar days (ET) after that block height is reached, the adjustment percentage as shown by a consensus of credible block explorers will be used. If block 975,744 has not been reached by 11:59 PM ET on December 11, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. The resolution source for this market is the mempool.space Mining Dashboard at https://mempool.space/mining, specifically the "Change" column of the Adjustments table for the specified block height. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the difficulty adjustment percentage as displayed on mempool.space, or, where mempool.space does not display it as described above, the consensus of credible block explorers. Values from other sources will not otherwise be considered for the resolution of this market.

This event has 6 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

The result is checked against mempool.space. Open the source

It can settle from Nov 16, 2026 07:03 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 14, 2026 05:27 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.