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Weather · Earthquakes5.5 Earthquake

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?

Live

$6.3K
$11.1K
60
$7.5K
$11.4K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • more than 1356.5%
  • 1314.5%
  • 1213.5%
  • 1112.0%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Event facts

Category
Weather · Earthquakes
Series
5.5 Earthquake · weekly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$250
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
9 open
Fills, last 24 h
207
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
11,143 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This event has 9 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

The result is checked against earthquake.usgs.gov. Open the source

It can settle from Oct 12, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 20:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.