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Tech · AI

Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?

Live

$6.3K
$6.3K
74
$2.2K
$12.0K

Where holders with a record are, by question

as of 04:59 UTC

1 wallet with a positive Tech record holds $10 or more on this event.

Fewer than 5 wallets hold $50 or more, so the list starts at $10.

The 1 by name, each with its record, with a free account.

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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured

Where holders with a record are, by question

as of 04:59 UTC

1 wallet with a positive Tech record holds $10 or more on this event.

Fewer than 5 wallets hold $50 or more, so the list starts at $10.

The holders
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Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • December 338.0%
  • November 2538.0%
  • December 134.5%
  • November 2133.0%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

50 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 50 open questions add up to 985.6¢.

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Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
50 open
Fills, last 24 h
300
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
6,465 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Carbon" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Carbon would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Carbon, while models whose name does not include "Carbon" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This event has 50 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 14, 2026 03:45 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.