Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?
Live
- $6.3K
- $6.3K
- 74
- $2.2K
- $12.0K
Where holders with a record are, by question
as of 04:59 UTC1 wallet with a positive Tech record holds $10 or more on this event.
Fewer than 5 wallets hold $50 or more, so the list starts at $10.
- On or prior to November 130.1¢Yes noneNo none
- November 1729.5¢Yes noneNo 1 · $26 · paid 99.0¢
- November 1929.0¢Yes noneNo 1 · $26 · paid 99.0¢
- November 1821.0¢Yes noneNo 1 · $26 · paid 99.0¢
- December 281.0¢Yes noneNo 1 · $26 · paid 99.0¢
- November 1421.0¢Yes noneNo 1 · $26 · paid 98.2¢
Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Tech record beat the price paid by 2.13¢ a share (others −1.28¢; 15,876 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,308 markets). How we measured
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 338.0%
- November 2538.0%
- December 134.5%
- November 2133.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
50 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 50 open questions add up to 985.6¢.
- 38.0 %
November 25
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢ - 38.0 %
December 3
$126.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢ - 34.5 %
December 1
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢ - 33.0 %
November 21
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢ - 31.0 %
November 20
$126.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢ - 30.5 %
November 23
$106.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢ - 29.5 %
November 17
$127.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢ - 29.0 %
November 19
$127.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢ - 26.0 %
December 8
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢ - 25.5 %
December 16
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢
- 25.5 %
December 18
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 25.5 %
December 22
$125.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 25.0 %
November 26
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢ - 25.0 %
November 16
$126.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢ - 25.0 %
December 15
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢ - 24.5 %
December 13
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 24.0 %
November 27
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢ - 24.0 %
December 5
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢ - 24.0 %
No release by December 31
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢ - 24.0 %
December 9
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢ - 23.5 %
December 2
$126.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢ - 23.5 %
December 17
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢ - 23.5 %
December 27
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢ - 23.5 %
December 21
$125.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢ - 23.0 %
November 15
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢ - 23.0 %
November 22
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢ - 23.0 %
December 24
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢ - 23.0 %
December 12
$125.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢ - 22.5 %
November 29
$126.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 22.5 %
December 6
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 22.5 %
December 30
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 22.5 %
December 11
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 21.5 %
December 23
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 21.5 %
December 25
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 21.0 %
November 18
$127.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢ - 21.0 %
November 14
$126.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢ - 20.5 %
December 14
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢ - 17.5 %
December 29
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢ - 3.0 %
December 4
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 3.0 %
December 10
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 3.0 %
December 19
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 3.0 %
December 20
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 3.0 %
December 31
$125.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 3.0 %
December 7
$125.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢ - 2.0 %
November 28
$126.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢ - 2.0 %
December 26
$125.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢ - 1.0 %
December 28
$127.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - 1.0 %
November 30
$126.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - 1.0 %
November 24
$101.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
On or prior to November 13
$133.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 50 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 300
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 6,465 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Carbon" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Carbon would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Carbon, while models whose name does not include "Carbon" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 50 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 14, 2026 03:45 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.