NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
Live
- $5.1K
- $17.6K
- 65
- $5.4K
- $144.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 35-3941.5%
- 40-4436.0%
- 30-3416.5%
- 45-491.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
7 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 7 open questions add up to 97.5¢.
- 41.5 %
35-39
$1.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢ - 36.0 %
40-44
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢ - 16.5 %
30-34
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢ - 1.6 %
45-49
$258.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - < 1 %
25-29
$442.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
50+
$238.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
<25
$260.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Global elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 7 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 133
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,539 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This event has 7 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 8, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026 05:37 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.