Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Live
- $13.3K
- $172.4K
- 58
- $64.3K
- $602.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Below 19039.0%
- 200-20413.7%
- 190-19413.0%
- 205-20912.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 10 open questions add up to 103.2¢.
- 39.0 %
Below 190
$11.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢ - 13.7 %
200-204
$169.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.7¢No 86.3¢ - 13.0 %
190-194
$198.50 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢ - 12.6 %
205-209
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 12.6¢No 87.4¢ - 11.0 %
195-199
$377.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢ - 5.2 %
215-219
$52.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.2¢No 94.8¢ - 4.2 %
210-214
$54.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢ - 3.4 %
220-224
$26.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.4¢No 96.6¢ - 1.1 %
225-229
$6.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
230+
$6.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter v3
- Questions
- 10 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 163
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 32,297 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 10 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 30, 2026 01:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.