AP calls the House by...?
Live
- $18.7K
- $46.1K
- 103
- $43.2K
- $181.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 15, 11:59 PM99.9%
- December 31, 11:59 PM99.8%
- November 30, 11:59 PM99.1%
- November 10, 11:59 PM98.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
12 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
November 15, 11:59 PM
$2.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢ - > 99 %
December 31, 11:59 PM
$423.76 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢ - > 99 %
November 30, 11:59 PM
$667.43 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.1¢No 0.9¢ - 98.6 %
November 10, 11:59 PM
$1.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 98.6¢No 1.4¢ - 98.3 %
November 13, 11:59 PM
$2.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 98.3¢No 1.7¢ - 98.0 %
November 4, 11:59 PM
$905.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢ - 97.5 %
November 6, 11:59 PM
$3.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢ - 97.4 %
November 5, 11:59 PM
$2.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 97.4¢No 2.6¢ - 90.5 %
November 4, 3:59 AM
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢ - 77.5 %
November 4, 12:59 AM
$1.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 12 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 376
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 24,754 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene following the midterm elections. Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Control of the House of Representatives will be considered to have been called when the Associated Press has either 1) issued a call that House control has been determined, or 2) issued race calls declaring winners in at least 218 districts for candidates of the same party, with all such calls standing at the same time for 1 hour without retraction. Independents will not be considered members of a party for purposes of this count. Under condition 1, no subsequent withdrawal of a control call will be relevant to this market. Under condition 2, this market will remain open for one hour following the race call that brings a party’s standing calls to 218. If, within that hour, the Associated Press retracts any of those calls such that the party’s standing calls fall below 218, condition 2 will not be considered satisfied by that call. If no such retraction occurs within the hour, condition 2 will be considered satisfied as of the time of the 218th call, regardless of any later retraction. For resolution, the relevant time is the time of the 218th call, not the end of the one-hour period. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press.
This event has 12 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 4, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 4, 2026 02:40 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.