Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Live
- $4.9K
- $2.97M
- 68
- $75.1K
- $26.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- ↑4.5k99.9%
- ↑5k97.8%
- ↑4.75k97.4%
- ↑5.5k96.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 open · 6 settled · 1 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
↑4.5k
$13.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢ - 97.8 %
↑5k
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 97.8¢No 2.2¢ - 97.4 %
↑4.75k
Yes 97.4¢No 2.6¢ - 96.5 %
↑5.5k
$643.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢ - 84.5 %
↑6k
$801.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢ - 65.5 %
↑6.5k
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢ - 31.5 %
↑7k
$127.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢ - 21.0 %
↑7.5k
$716.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢ - 7.4 %
↑10k
$87.19 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.4¢No 92.6¢ - 5.3 %
↑12.5k
Yes 5.3¢No 94.7¢
1 more that never traded
Event facts
- Category
- Weather · Climate
- Series
- measles · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 10 open · 6 settled · 1 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 149
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,152 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This event has 17 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
6 of the 17 have settled; ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3.5k, ↑3k, ↑4k, ↑500 settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 17, 2026 02:22 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.