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Politics · US electionsUnited States

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

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Open on Polymarket
$16.6K
$263.44M
157
$9.06M
$52.62M

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • J.D. Vance48.4%
  • Marco Rubio15.0%
  • Tucker Carlson3.1%
  • Ron DeSantis2.8%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

43 open · 85 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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85 more that never traded

Event facts

Category
Politics · US elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$25,000
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter v3
Questions
43 open · 85 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
639
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
216,279 shares
  1. Created
  3. First trade
  4. Event start

Who is trading this event

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

This event has 128 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Nov 8, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 08:14 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.