Closest Senate Race?
Live
- $6.9K
- $29.1K
- 74
- $10.4K
- $893.2K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Iowa15.3%
- Kansas14.0%
- South Carolina10.8%
- Michigan9.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
35 open · 5 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 15.3 %
Iowa
$507.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 15.3¢No 84.7¢ - 14.0 %
Kansas
$345.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢ - 10.8 %
South Carolina
$555.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.8¢No 89.2¢ - 9.8 %
Michigan
$223.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.8¢No 90.2¢ - 9.7 %
Alaska
$276.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.7¢No 90.3¢ - 9.0 %
Maine
$197.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 8.9 %
Texas
$277.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.9¢No 91.1¢ - 8.1 %
Nebraska
$431.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.1¢No 91.9¢ - 6.2 %
Ohio (Special)
$631.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.2¢No 93.8¢ - 4.2 %
Mississippi
$161.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.2¢No 95.8¢
- 3.8 %
Florida (Special)
$224.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.8¢No 96.2¢ - 1.9 %
Louisiana
$230.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - 1.8 %
Montana
$217.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.3 %
New Hampshire
$185.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - 1.2 %
Arkansas
$203.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.2¢No 98.8¢ - 1.1 %
South Dakota
$184.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
Minnesota
$238.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Georgia
$184.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Kentucky
$204.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Colorado
$184.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
North Carolina
$184.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
New Mexico
$184.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Idaho
$184.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Wyoming
$112.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Alabama
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Delaware
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Illinois
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Massachusetts
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
New Jersey
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Oklahoma
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Oregon
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Rhode Island
$48.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Tennessee
$48.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Virginia
$48.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
West Virginia
$45.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
5 more that never traded
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 35 open · 5 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 305
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,798 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 40 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 2, 2026 03:35 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.