What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Live
- $5.5K
- $3.55M
- 35
- $49.9K
- $337.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 4.25%64.3%
- 4.0%33.4%
- ≥ 4.5%1.6%
- 3.75%1.4%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
15 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 15 open questions add up to 103.6¢.
- 64.3 %
4.25%
$246.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 64.3¢No 35.7¢ - 33.4 %
4.0%
$665.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 33.4¢No 66.6¢ - 1.6 %
≥ 4.5%
$1.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.4 %
3.75%
$322.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - < 1 %
3.5%
$359.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
≤1.0%
$323.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
1.25
$324.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
2.0%
$371.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
1.75%
$284.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
2.5%
$284.48 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Economy & the Fed
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter v3
- Questions
- 15 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 233
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,148 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This event has 15 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026 04:33 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.