How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Live
- $5.9K
- $222.2K
- 34
- $54.7K
- $23.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Below 4.55%53.5%
- Below 4.50%33.5%
- Below 4.45%25.5%
- Below 4.40%22.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 open · 3 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 53.5 %
Below 4.55%
$545.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢ - 33.5 %
Below 4.50%
$185.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢ - 25.5 %
Below 4.45%
$70.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 22.5 %
Below 4.40%
$521.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢ - 17.5 %
Below 4.35%
$2.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢ - 10.8 %
Below 4.25%
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 10.8¢No 89.2¢ - 10.8 %
Below 4.30%
$518.46 traded, 24 h
Yes 10.8¢No 89.2¢ - 8.9 %
Below 4.20%
$262.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.9¢No 91.1¢ - 7.6 %
Below 4.10%
$709.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.6¢No 92.4¢ - 2.1 %
Below 4.00%
$2.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Central banks & rates
- Series
- How low 5-year Treasury · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 10 open · 3 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 88
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,844 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This event has 13 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
3 of the 13 have settled; Below 4.60%, Below 4.65%, Below 4.70% settled Yes.
It can settle from Dec 31, 2026 00:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026 00:11 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.