US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Live
- $336.6K
- $14.19M
- 579
- $2.44M
- $573.9K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- October 2899.7%
- October 3197.9%
- November 293.7%
- November 486.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
9 open · 13 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
October 28
$31.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢ - 97.9 %
October 31
$77.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 97.9¢No 2.1¢ - 93.7 %
November 2
$33.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 93.7¢No 6.3¢ - 86.5 %
November 4
$31.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢ - 71.0 %
November 8
$96.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢ - 53.0 %
November 15
$35.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢ - 43.5 %
November 22
$7.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢ - 38.0 %
November 30
$6.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢ - 27.5 %
December 31
$16.4K traded, 24 h
Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Middle East
- Series
- US-Iran ceasefire continues · monthly
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 9 open · 13 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 1,643
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 711,180 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 22 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
13 of the 22 have settled; October 5, October 7, October 9, October 12, October 15, October 16, October 17, October 18, October 22, October 24, September 20, September 25, September 30 settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 31, 2026 16:02 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.