Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Live
- $6.4K
- $6.4K
- 68
- $5.6K
- $26.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 988.5%
- November 887.5%
- November 1485.5%
- November 1585.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
25 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 88.5 %
November 9
$926.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢ - 87.5 %
November 8
$821.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢ - 85.5 %
November 15
$381.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢ - 85.5 %
November 30
$226.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢ - 85.5 %
November 14
$183.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢ - 84.0 %
November 19
$219.54 traded, 24 h
Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢ - 84.0 %
November 17
$176.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢ - 83.5 %
November 21
$134.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢ - 83.0 %
November 10
$151.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢ - 81.5 %
November 12
$32.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢
- 80.0 %
November 26
$556.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢ - 80.0 %
November 25
$366.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢ - 80.0 %
November 11
$135.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢ - 80.0 %
November 13
$24.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢ - 79.0 %
November 16
$20.99 traded, 24 h
Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢ - 78.0 %
November 23
$210.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢ - 74.5 %
November 7
$351.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢ - 74.0 %
November 29
$291.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 74.0¢No 26.0¢ - 72.0 %
November 20
$9.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢ - 70.0 %
November 6
$420.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢ - 70.0 %
November 27
$189.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢ - 70.0 %
November 22
$94.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢ - 68.5 %
November 28
$53.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢ - 68.0 %
November 24
$323.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢ - 58.0 %
November 18
$91.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- World · Middle East
- Series
- Israel military action against Lebanon
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 25 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 375
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,548 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Jerusalem time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 25 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026 14:46 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.