Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Live
- $32.2K
- $38.4K
- 176
- $9.4K
- $1.71M
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- None25.0%
- IA, KS12.0%
- All 79.6%
- IA6.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
128 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 128 open questions add up to 167.5¢.
- 25.0 %
None
$391.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢ - 12.0 %
IA, KS
$407.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢ - 9.6 %
All 7
$555.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.6¢No 90.4¢ - 6.8 %
IA
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 6.8¢No 93.2¢ - 5.5 %
KS
$418.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢ - 5.4 %
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$206.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.4¢No 94.6¢ - 3.9 %
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$169.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢ - 3.1 %
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$636.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - 2.8 %
IA, MI
$207.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.8 %
IA, ME, MI, TX
$114.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢
- 2.8 %
AK, IA, KS, OH
$130.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.5 %
IA, TX
$187.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.5 %
KS, ME, OH, TX
$311.19 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.4 %
IA, KS, ME
$336.06 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢ - 2.1 %
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX
$676.53 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 2.0 %
KS, MI, OH
$221.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢ - 1.9 %
TX
$41.52 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - 1.8 %
IA, ME, TX
$386.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.8 %
ME, MI, TX
$362.76 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.6 %
AK, IA, KS
$359.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
OH, TX
$190.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX
$178.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
ME, TX
$166.49 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$166.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
IA, KS, ME, OH
$251.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
AK, ME, MI, TX
$198.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
AK, IA, MI, OH
$190.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
IA, ME, OH, TX
$184.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.6 %
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX
$127.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.5 %
OH
$37.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.5 %
AK, KS, ME, MI
$185.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.5 %
AK, ME, MI, OH
$166.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢ - 1.4 %
MI
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.4 %
IA, KS, OH
$114.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.4 %
KS, TX
$126.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.3 %
ME, MI, OH, TX
$238.56 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - 1.1 %
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI
$353.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
IA, MI, TX
$195.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.0 %
IA, MI, OH, TX
$228.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
AK, ME, OH
$241.10 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, TX
$195.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX
$234.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, TX
$217.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, OH, TX
$245.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
AK, ME, MI
$278.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
IA, ME, MI, OH
$136.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA
$521.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
KS, OH
$450.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS
$282.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, TX
$261.55 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX
$259.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, ME, MI
$254.76 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, MI, TX
$249.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH
$247.09 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, ME, OH
$243.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$232.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, OH
$230.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
MI, TX
$229.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
MI, OH
$225.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, ME, OH
$220.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, ME, TX
$218.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, MI
$214.15 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, MI, OH
$212.76 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, OH, TX
$211.99 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$210.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, ME, OH, TX
$210.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$209.80 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, ME
$208.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, ME, TX
$205.06 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, MI, OH
$203.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME, OH
$202.66 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME, MI
$201.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, ME, MI, TX
$194.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, MI, TX
$192.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, MI, OH, TX
$191.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, MI
$185.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, ME, MI, OH
$171.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, ME, OH
$153.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$153.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, MI, OH, TX
$150.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX
$141.79 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, ME
$134.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME
$130.72 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH
$115.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, OH
$114.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, OH
$114.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, ME, MI
$374.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
ME, OH, TX
$306.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, OH
$297.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, MI, OH
$269.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
ME, MI, OH
$266.97 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$259.25 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
ME, OH
$237.76 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
ME, MI
$214.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
ME
$208.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, MI
$205.49 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX
$195.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH
$177.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, ME, MI
$166.61 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
KS, ME, TX
$160.83 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, TX
$160.26 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX
$131.08 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, ME, TX
$107.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
AK, MI, TX
$268.65 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH
$244.59 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
MI, OH, TX
$202.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
IA, ME
$183.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, OH, TX
$172.33 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
KS, MI
$167.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
IA, OH, TX
$131.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX
$258.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
AK, MI
$190.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, MI, TX
$228.69 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, TX
$209.01 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
KS, MI, TX
$123.72 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
AK, ME
$374.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$274.05 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$271.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, ME, TX
$264.99 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, OH, TX
$259.96 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK
$222.89 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
KS, OH, TX
$191.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, IA, MI
$185.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$184.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX
$184.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, MI, OH
$165.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$153.86 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
AK, KS, ME
$123.99 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 128 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 2,263
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 49,345 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This event has 128 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 3, 2026 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 28, 2026 04:50 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.